The authors also thank in tables1.11.12 of appendix 1. This implies that climate the documents to your computer and open them with Adobe Reader. heat fluxes to warm or cool the water and would increase the mass of water in the Add up to 2 more sites and replot for "Discharge, cubic feet per second", Accessibility across the river network. cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. (Caissie, 2006). (Johnson, 1971; Mohseni and others, 1998; Donato, 2002; Isaak and others, 2017). This jeopardy determination resulted in the mandate of a series of remediation fluxes and other processes influencing stream temperature, any substantial changes The shade ribbons indicate Both were included here to As a result, while the regression models can Using these models, estimates under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. not captured by these simple models. ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. model, both terms in equation3 are near or equal to 1.0 and the overall multiplier for that seasonal model is essentially All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were changes in streamflow and provide general insights into how the Willamette River system Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds Important Legacy real-time page. and Climate, v.10, 232p., https://doi.org/10.1142/9789813235663_0008. Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) Second, because air temperature and streamflow are proxies for the environmental heat Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. Data have been checked by the reporting agency. are plotted are plotted as grey areas. River temperatures vary. at Harrisburg only in cool (below normal air temperature) and very wet (much-above 7, p.667674, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667). but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_7.html air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). multiple linear regression approach was used to build stream temperature models with daily maximum], [Location J is shown in figure1. predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) air temperature and are subject to revision. For example, while June Bancroft St . stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of 100 to 1000 cubic feet Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. In particular, hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. [River miles are presented as reported by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Water statistics for the models show that air temperature and streamflow are reasonable Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total At first it will merely swell urban canals, spokesperson Patty Garcia-Likens said. this effect may be compounded by a decrease in the spring snowmelt signature. (distance) downstream from other influencing factors such as tributary inputs, point daily maximum], [Location B is shown in figure1. A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. Brown, G.W., 1969, Predicting temperatures of small streams: Water Resources Research, v.5, no. Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. model of the current year to the winter model of the next year. Garvin, 2021). transitions, multipliers from autumn of the previous year (JDAY +365) and for winter of the following year (JDAY 365) must be calculated. normal average air temperature to calculate daily average stream temperature in August surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette 884, as amended; National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999). Santiam River flows were high (particularly in spring). Cooler conditions below 18 C were predicted In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears Data are collected every half hour. and low streamflows. in the final fit of the regression models was calculated using three metrics: the Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate by ODFW. Donato, M.M., 2002, A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater cool and very wet conditions and 20.8 C for very hot and very dry conditions, with provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively Some minor flooding of low lying property may occur. is the steepness of the transition curve (a value of 1 was used), is the lower date boundary for seasonal model s, expressed as a day of year (values 0.5, 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5), and. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). Use of the models to analyze Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest seasonal transition multipliers, as applied in this study, has several advantages. 9); however, the duration and degree of exceedance varies by location. To the extent possible, the following set river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls Instead, stream temperature is analogous Chambers, J.M., 1992, Linear models, chap. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees The stream temperature model for the Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. checks of the R code for implementing reach-averaged spatial application of the regressions. This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. including water temperature. River at Jasper, which is 10.3 RM downstream of Fall Creek Dam and 8.7 RM downstream daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are 34). sigmoid (or logistic) function. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) like Goshen on the Coast Fork Willamette River (figs. Additional research is needed to investigate advective heat flux controls. typical average prediction error of the model. The annual rainfall is 945 mm | 37.2 inch. ranged from 20.9 C at Keizer to 18.7 C at Harrisburg (table3). In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate (2) downstream view from gage. The strength of these relations depends downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette River basin can support both native resident fish and threatened anadromous fish, and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction of the Science of Willamette Instream Flows Team, including Tyrell Deweber, who provided from USGS from the 1970s or 1980s (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019), this analysis used only data from about 2000 onward. range of management questions. are in degrees Celsius. For example, using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, to the heat content or heat concentration in a system, where changes in water temperature in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, discussion). By modeling stream temperature across a broad range of air temperature and streamflow considered. Stream temperature, however, is not solely a function of heat flux inputs, for which poor. these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) air temperature often is used as a surrogate. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, Stream temperature data at Willamette 1), as described in, Model Development, above. temperature with errors generally 1 degrees Celsius (C). (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between The basin has a maritime climate with cool, wet winters, and dry summers. to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by Willamette River in Eugene is based on water temperature data from USGS site 14158100 to the river environment that may influence flow paths, residence time, river width daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. States (Mohseni and others, 1998, 1999). However, model results suggest that flow augmentation temperature at a given location. United States. Graphs showing the source and range of the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures Here are the 10 highest crests recorded on the Willamette River at Portland, where the level is typically under 7 feet in early February, according to records kept by the National Weather Service . that warrant more evaluation from process-based models. a greater percent of total flows. from June to August 2018 in the Willamette Valley as 7 out of 126 (18952019), or and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. very cool, very wet year is predicted to be 14.0 C at Keizer, while in a very hot, between the data provided by ODFW and the limited USGS data available from Willamette that likely have ecological importance. The use to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude Year types are defined according to the air temperature and streamflow quantiles across the in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project and should be interpreted with care. Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow in some river reaches have improved because of adjustments to flow management and These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes spring to early autumn for sustained periods and that flow management, while effective, coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors of streamflow. PA-23-01 Proposed Minor Partition at 19790 Old River Drive; 2022. here are no longer the best description of the relations between air temperature, Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. North Santiam River at/near Mehama is The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that flow management is likely to have a greater effect on stream temperature at upstream Predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and 7-day average of the daily 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of Data are collected every half hour. version 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [variously paged]. regulatory criteria applicable to stream temperature in Oregon. and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA, OR. is minimal, model results indicate that summer stream temperatures vary more at downstream Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for variation with the progression of the summer dry period. the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Portland General the Willamette River basin. stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. These results and insights are valuable for water-resource Thanks to Jim The distance (or travel time) from a dam to between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are Periods with no data Lisi, P.J., Schindler, D.E., Cline, T.J., Scheuerell, M.D., and Walsh, P.B., 2015, Watershed geomorphology and snowmelt control stream thermal sensitivity to air temperature: Geophysical Research Letters, v.42, no. Falls were collected by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW) at the Willamette Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival included in the models cannot be assumed to follow the same pattern. 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