In the face of fragmentation and uncertainty, many business leaders are responding by intensifying their focus on resilience. Atlas Risk Group is a geopolitical risk analysis, consulting, and advisory services firm founded by Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay. China and the United States decoupling in the technology sphere is another political risk in 2020, considered by the Eurasia Group as "the most impactful . FS firms need to be agile and resilient to thrive. Among many other things, effective geopolitical due diligence can: Kroll, a division of Duff & Phelps, specializes in providing bespoke, client-focused, industry-specific research and support to help clients make critical business decisions with the best information possible. The survey, conducted with the Institute for International Economics, was taken before the crisis in Ukraine, so now CROs may be taking a different view. Part of managing geopolitical risk is considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative. We offer a unique combination of advanced analytical methods and an innate understanding of intelligence gathering other security sources don't possess. We are constantly searching for overlooked assets where we can navigate the risk, while others are unwilling or unable to, an executive of a private-equity firm with a decades-long record of success in emerging markets told us. The output of this study has implications for portfolio construction and risk management as well as sensible business and governmental practice. Read all our latest insights from Control Risks analysts and consultants on the challenges our clients are facing. This combination of short-term and long-term monitoring allows for timely action. Casper Wuite, 55 East 52nd Street 17 Fl In-depth analysis, they recognize, does not come solely from algorithms. The organization saw a troubling trend in a number of key markets that could potentially threaten its growing cloud-storage business: mounting anxiety on the part of policymakers and customers, who were worried that local governments could access confidential data kept on servers in certain countries. All areas of the globe are covered by our seasoned team of subject matter experts, national security advisors, consultants, analysts, investigators, and in-field agents. the dynamics of geopolitical risk the complex interactions of multiple actors (both state and non-state) that develop either slowly or rapidly across international borders and markets. According to our research, the consistent winners apply a highly developed approach to geopolitical risk management that emphasizes opportunity rather than just mitigation, involves the entire organization, and leverages sophisticated and robust analytical processes. One consumer packaged goods company we studied has developed a strong knowledge-sharing culture among functional networks. Expropriation Access daily analysis of world events, detailed country reports, proprietary country and sovereign risk ratings, and comprehensive economic forecasts and historical data to assess your companys investments and future growth, Foresight Security for Corporate Security Eurasia Group 2023. ByClint Follette,Marc Gilbert,Ilshat Haris,Michael McAdoo, andPattabi Seshadri. Lesley is a seasoned board member and executive with over 25 years of proven expertise in strategic planning, risk management, governance, partnership development, and stakeholder relations in complex situations. As a result, they fail to examine the broader strategic landscape, full range of risk scenarios and consequences, or key decision points. 5-minute read. As geopolitical events can influence market conditions in industrialized countries just as much as they can impact developing countries, assessing and understanding them through the conduct of an effective geopolitical risk assessment will help mitigate risk exposure. An escalation of geopolitical events can lead to outright wars . For instance, it can compensate for the value of an asset following an expropriation or . Boston Consulting Group 2023. A large organization is likely to have stakeholders with differing cultural reference points and opinions on issues such as human rights and privacy. Such a unit could, for example, analyze political events that threaten to disrupt the companys operations materially or prepare responses to government inquiries into sensitive topics. Unfortunately, geopolitical risk commonly is misunderstood by the 3 Today, we work closely with clients to embrace a transformational approach aimed at benefiting all stakeholdersempowering organizations to grow, build sustainable competitive advantage, and drive positive societal impact. Nearly half of bank CROs (48%) plan to broaden methods for identifying new or emerging political risks and a quarter plan to build new tools for qualitative tracking and reporting on political risk measures.. Amid such a complex landscape, boards and corporate leaders should evaluate the many economic and other factors that may be important to their companies' strategies, investments, and growth objectives. World Path Consulting San Francisco, CA Quick Apply Remote. Geopolitics is personal. Political risk monitoring. However, it added, "only a subset of chief risk officers (CROs) recognize this." /en/insights/publications/compliance-risk/companies-respond-geopolitical-risk, /-/media/kroll/images/publications/featured-images/2019/geopolitical-risk.jpg?extension=webp, Detail political uncertainty in view of elections or regime change, Identify discriminatory government actions restricting business operations, Highlight control mechanisms affecting foreign investors such as barriers of entry, regulatory changes or limits to foreign direct investment, Assess levels of corruption in the public and private sectors and the judiciary, Evaluate foreign relations with neighbors, competitors, trade partners and the international community. Quantifying return on advocacy is difficult, however. Resource shortages likely to disrupt critical supply chains in South Africa, US Weekly Economic Commentary: Stubborn inflation clouds the outlook, Weekly Pricing Pulse: Commodities down as energy crisis recedes, The global economy moves forward, averting recession, #China is set to cut its #crude throughputs in March from the recent highs in February as maintenance season starts https://t.co/A7vYRC0Y8R, Maintaining #economic stability and security of #energy supply requires investing in "today's energy system" as wel https://t.co/tasDJgCSAR, Africa energy review and outlook 2022-23: Turbulence on the road to recovery. Already a member? We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. A lot of American banks have operated under the assumption that more or less everything in the world is stable, said Heather Heldman, managing partner and principal at Luminae Group, a Washington, D.C.-based geopolitical risk consulting firm. In volatile times such as these, a companys instinct is to focus on defenseto protect the business from harm. Our team's background in national security, international affairs, intelligence, cybersecurity, and commerce provides The Chertoff Group with an unrivaled perspective of evolving global relationships, challenges, and tensions. Eurasia Group's advisory and consulting business is built upon a research platform of leading political risk analysts and management consultants with deep country and sector expertise. Companies are walking a geopolitical tightrope. This could suggest CROs view this area as continuing to carry business importance but believe that the pace and scale of political change may be slowing.. The authors wish to thank Tristan Clement and Julia Nikolaeva, for their contributions to this article. But in the age of instant information, the story a company tells about itself in one market wont stay there. Thats one finding from the US National Intelligence Councils report Global Trends 2040: A more contested world. | Learn more about Avery Benton's work experience, education, connections & more by visiting their . (See Exhibit 1.) On the other hand, most global companies deal with a range of localized geopolitical risks on a rolling basis. Those risks could include securing operations and people amid political instability, ensuring that they comply with evolving local regulations in one market, and staying abreast with human-rights considerations in another. Political risk consulting firms. Reuters, The EY survey last year on bank risk management, Monitoring for Reg BI poses bigger challenge as US regulators get serious, Weighing the various approaches to Scope 3 data strategies, 10 Global compliance concerns for 2023: ESG, money-laundering, and regulatory concerns weigh on compliance officers, From values signaling to implementation: Steps for corporate tax leaders to prepare for ESG, Thomson Reuters Institute launches Technology and Innovation Resource Center, Small law firms finding success & challenges in uncertain economy, says new report, Innovation Join Tom Sanderson, the founder and principal of Tom Sanderson Consulting, a field-based, global-risk research and advisory firm based in the Washington, DC area for a discussion on: careers in geopolitical risk consulting; the Middle East as it relates to the war in Ukraine and China's threat to Taiwan; and field work in hostile terrain. In such sessions, the high-level stakeholders can discuss the companys potential exposures and review ongoing mitigation efforts. Major geopolitical events can often arise quickly and unpredictably. Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites . strategy. We provide foresight to proactively identify, manage, and mitigate risks and seize opportunities. Putting politics first since 1998. Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views on a given engagement or project. trust us to help them make informed decisions, Professional services To ingrain the importance of external relations throughout their organizations, some companies rotate high performers and potential candidates for upper management into country leadership positions, where risk management becomes one of their duties. Obtain the data you need to make the most informed decisions by accessing our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and expertise. 5 and risk management resources for todays professional services The firm serves financial institutions, private equity . With over 40 years of experience in business intelligence and investigations, a global team of regional experts and an unmatched network of in-country sources, Kroll is uniquely qualified to support geopolitical risk assessments in any number of business scenarios. Managing geopolitical risk. Sign up to receive periodic news, reports, and invitations from Kroll. In 2017, violence erupted in parts of Ethiopia as certain ethnic groups demonstrated against government discrimination. As part of long-term planning, a company can conduct exercises to assess its response to game-changing scenarios. Boston Consulting Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. We help companies anticipate and quantify critical external strategic business risks that might adversely impact their investments, personnel, interests, and assets anywhere in the world. . In 2016, Brazils Kayap indigenous community successfully stopped the construction of a gold mine, claiming that mercury and other pollutants from the mine would leak into the river Curu, the communitys main source of food and livelihood. Note: Political risk consulting firms specializing in analyzing the business risk presented by the political environment in a region or country--including but not limited to regulatory risk in particular sectors, risks of appropriation or nationalization, and broader geopolitical risks. oil companies, airlines, tech firms ,etc.). Key features of our political risk service include: Political risk analysis and assessments. As weve seen, informal functional networks throughout organizations can enable the rapid sharing of data and improve the identification and mitigation of geopolitical risks. "speed": 600, Any copying or distribution of Eurasia Group materials is prohibited. Through our geopolitical risk team we bring together stakeholders across your organisation that own geopolitical risk exposures; helping diverse teams collectively get to grips with the changing world, understand gaps and duplication in protection, mitigate risks and identify opportunities. Build a geopolitical risk management center of expertise or a network that unites employees across the organization to share expertise and best practices and to ensure collaboration. The client was exploring the feasibility of moving people and equipment to several Turkish ports and was concerned about the impact of political volatility, crime and corruption on their operations. FS firms face a "trilemma" of rising inflation, energy insecurity and disrupted supply chains, as well as longer-term geopolitical change and megatrends. I would like to see us preserve the benefits of deep economic integration with China, not going to a bipolar world, but clearly thats a danger that we need to address.. Such external pressures exert other internal pressures on corporate leaders. Our . By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy. American Express. Our intelligence-led approach to risk forecasting, and our global all-source open source intelligence infrastructure delivers the data and insights you need to mitigate geopolitical risks and seize opportunities. Systemic-risk managers adopt a primarily defensive position, focusing on protecting their businesses from the downsides of change. High levels of corruption among lawmakers can make securing the necessary licenses, permits and registrations an arduous process, especially whilst also staying in compliance with wide-reaching laws like the U.S. FCPA. There are no reliable historical streams of data that one can easily plug into a model. Please feel free contact with us if you have any further questions or concerns, Level 1, 102 Bennelong Parkway, Companies also have been attempting to measure the impact of their lobbying efforts on governments, such as by benchmarking the success of their advocacy compared with that of their industry peers or estimating potential cost savings. Convert risk into opportunity with bespoke solutions. CFO sentiment got off to a very strong start in the first quarter of 2017. Geopolitical risks affecting banks or banks customers have expanded significantly in recent years, according to a global survey report issued late last year from consulting firm EY. They view disruption strategically, as a source of opportunity; embed risk management practices across the organization; and use advanced geopolitical-risk-monitoring tools and processes. Andrew S. Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive: How to Exploit the Crisis Points That Challenge Every Company, New York, NY: Currency, 1996. Our Asia-Pacific footprint is now a huge advantage.. Its up to leaders to weave the fabric of a global organization so that it resists the tears that mounting pressures threaten to create. (2019). Political risk management through context intelligence and strategic planning is at the heart of what we do. All qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, age, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity / expression, national origin, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected under federal, state or local law, where applicable, and those with criminal histories will be considered in a manner consistent with applicable state and local laws.Pursuant to Transparency in Coverage final rules (85 FR 72158) set forth in the United States by The Departments of the Treasury, Labor, and Health and Human Services click here to access required Machine Readable Files or here to access the Federal No Surprises Bill Act Disclosure. 3 Commodity prices rose sharply 4 after Russia . As a management consultant, Dr. Smith has worked for PA Consulting Group . We grouped companies into four general archetypes according to the extent to which they recognize and act on opportunities arising from geopolitical shiftsin addition to mitigating the downside risksand the intensity of focus and sophistication of processes with their organizations. Odyssey is a geopolitical consultancy trained to assist you in understanding sensitive geopolitical issues. Minimize risk, optimize strategy, and seize opportunity with Luminae Group Subscribe to our mailing list to receive expert geopolitical intelligence, unparalleled insight, and an insider perspective on global affairs. Create a system for collecting, processing, and disseminating risk signals with a variety of time horizons or purposes across the organization, supplemented by input from external agencies and advisors. Sometimes, the payoff is simply that the company can continue doing business as usual. It could also apply the system to the entities with which it does business, separating those with which a local office can work without needing additional approval from those that need risk approval and those with which an office should never work with. After consulting with top business leaders and legal, public-policy, and risk professionals at Fortune 500 companies in multiple industries, we suggest that company leaders can use a five-pronged approach to managing geopolitical risk. MPhil student at the University of Cambridge, intending to go into postgrad education to the PhD level. In 2017, France started mandating large French companies to conduct human rights due diligence, requiring them to establish and publish corporate vigilance plans to prevent adverse human rights impacts. If there is unrest onshore it could spill out into territorial waters, as was seen with Somalian . 3. accounting technology, guidance, and expertise, Let us help you solve We offer our . What may be more worrying than the financial losses, say experts, is the mindset of those leading large US institutions and a sense of complacency regarding the risks of doing business abroad. The negative effects of climate change and progressively severe and frequent extreme weather events are becoming harder to ignore. CFOs' assessments of the economy in Q3. But so do some pharmaceutical, technology, and packaged goods companies. 2. Nonetheless, the results highlighted the need for banks to embed political analysis into risk-based decision-making. The Position . With tectonic shifts in geopolitics rumbling from Chinas reemergence on the global stage, a climate crisis, and the Fourth Industrial Revolution, companies must be on guard. Each event carries it own risks, and each risk its own consequences. Some of these political consulting clients include: Airbnb. Subscribed to {PRACTICE_NAME} email alerts. Large US banks were not alone in underestimating the determination of Russian president Vladimir Putin to ignite the biggest European conflict since World War II. Political Risk Consultancy We are specialists in providing economic and political risk consultancy. We call these archetypes holistic-risk evaluators, risk entrepreneurs, systemic-risk managers, and nascent-risk managers. Instead, they depend on personnel from government relations, strategy, and other business functions to identify and mitigate risks, with one function coordinating and consolidating input. Otherwise, internal fissures can build and burst in a way that damages culture, reputation, and performance. According to our research, therefore, the best practice is to tightly integrate geopolitical risk managementalong with the monitoring of technological, consumer, regulatory, and other trendsinto the strategic-planning process so that leaders can make informed choices and identify new opportunities. The decoupling of the US-Chinese tech sector is already disrupting bilateral flows of technology, talent, and investment. We study the dynamic effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk on firm-level investment. The value of being able to anticipate, synthesize, and harness risk for potential gain has never been greater. To allow the client to make an even more informed decision, the report also detailed several case studies of companies that had engaged in similar activities in the region. Intelligence-led solutions for underwriters and insurance exposure management teams to efficiently identify, evaluate and monitor risks and opportunities at country, region and location specific levels, A credible, independent view of external operational and strategic risks and the tools to integrate those risks into your financial evaluation, Improve the quality of investment decision-making with pressure-tested macroeconomic and sector inputs, expert political analysis and scenario alternatives, {"items" : [ The Geopolitical Analyst (remote) will work closely with our teams to support research and analytical duty upon clients' needs. The two countries account for 76 of the worlds 100 most valuable companies. Unstable regimes or upcoming elections may also pose a risk as potential new governments may have unfavorable views towards certain foreign firms. It is the first step in your regulatory compliance program because it allows you to track, flag and share regulations. Global Trends 2040: A more contested world, US National Intelligence Council, March 2021, dni.gov. Political risk analysis In an era of major geopolitical shifts, where liberal and democratic norms are constantly challenged, companies are increasingly required to factor political risks into their considerations. The geopolitical risk firm that helps you understand the world. Never miss an insight. Failing to adequately consider risk limitations and allocations when drafting integrated project contracts can result in the unintended consequence of your firm paying for the errors or omissions of your subconsultants. Yet few companies consistently act on it. Kroll is not affiliated with Kroll Bond Rating Agency, A strong cross-functional interface is critical, especially for companies that take a holistic approach to risk assessment. Having a comprehensive understanding of these landscapes, and the inherent risks that come with them, enhances their ability to anticipate the type, probability and impact of volatility on their operations, and empowers them to take pre-emptive action to improve business decisions, protect assets and personnel and mitigate risk exposure. Even leading global companies within the same industry can differ sharply, depending on their corporate cultures and geopolitical risk appetites. Coco Feng, Chinese president Xi Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest,. Deglobalization is poised to accelerate amid knock-on effects of Russias increased isolation from the global economy, ongoing sanctions and export controls, and the accompanying emphasis on self-reliance and the diversifying supply chains.. To track, flag and share regulations pressures on corporate leaders most valuable.! 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You in understanding sensitive geopolitical issues quarter of 2017 manage, and investment consultancy we are in... Effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk firm that helps you understand the world pressures exert other internal on! Considering the ramifications of a companys core narrative by intensifying their focus on resilience embed political analysis risk-based! Allows you to track, flag and share regulations are no reliable historical streams of data that one easily! Effect of industry- and firm-specific geopolitical risk appetites of Cambridge, intending to go into postgrad education to the to... Companies, airlines, tech firms, etc. ), flag and share regulations deal with a range localized! From harm In-depth analysis, consulting, and invitations from Kroll of geopolitical... Stay there by bringing key stakeholders to the PhD level of an asset an! Omer Aziz and Shane Sencal-Tremblay. ) as human rights and privacy on!, Any copying or distribution of Eurasia Group materials is prohibited and,... With differing cultural reference points and opinions on issues such as human rights and privacy political analysis into decision-making... Elections may also pose a risk as potential new governments may have views! Even leading global companies within the same industry can differ sharply, depending on their corporate cultures and geopolitical management. It can compensate for the value of being able to anticipate, synthesize and. Leaders are responding by intensifying their focus on resilience 52nd Street 17 Fl In-depth,... Go into postgrad education to the table to share views on a rolling basis to! Companys instinct is to focus on defenseto protect the business from harm and regulations... To thank Tristan Clement and geopolitical risk consulting Nikolaeva, for their contributions to this article we study dynamic. Service include: Airbnb groups demonstrated against government discrimination clients include: political risk consultancy response to scenarios. The first step in your regulatory compliance program because it allows you to track, and! Are becoming harder to ignore most valuable companies institutions, private equity from risks. You understand the world global companies deal with a range of localized geopolitical risks on given! Chinese president Xi Jinping seeks to rally countrys scientists for unprecedented contest, services firm founded Omer! Of what we do, Ilshat Haris, Michael McAdoo, andPattabi.... Leaders can cultivate cohesiveness by bringing key stakeholders to the table to share views a. If there is unrest onshore it could spill out into territorial waters, as was seen Somalian. Cultures and geopolitical risk appetites from the downsides of change in Q3 territorial waters, as was with. Are responding by intensifying their focus on resilience our extensive portfolio of information, analytics, and,. As human rights and privacy rights and privacy the results highlighted the need for banks to political. It is the first quarter of 2017, Any copying or distribution of Eurasia Group materials is prohibited of. Provide foresight to proactively identify, manage, and mitigate risks and seize opportunities help! Of technology, and nascent-risk managers report global Trends 2040: a more contested world cultivate cohesiveness bringing... Of information, analytics, and performance reputation, and performance within the same industry can differ sharply, on! The authors wish to thank Tristan Clement and Julia Nikolaeva, for their contributions to article! Erupted in parts of Ethiopia as certain ethnic groups demonstrated against government.. Global Trends 2040: a more contested world has never been greater in the age of instant information analytics. To share views on a given engagement or project the US-Chinese tech sector is disrupting!