The Herron memo gave postmark and "point of origin" criteria that Herron maintained could be used to challenge overseas ballots. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Dividend investors can specifically focus on decreasing their risk by increasing their return expectation and estimating future dividend growth conservatively. Most restrictive standard: requires fully punched chads and complete fills on optical scan ballots, no overvotes. [10] The county canvassing board was then to decide whether to do a recount, as well as the method of the recount, in those three precincts. Scenario & Sensitivity Analyses. the possibility of moving into "Strong Buy" range if this bearish market continues pressuring equities down. Orange County then performed a hand segregation and determined that these votes numbered 184 for Bush, 249 for Gore and 79 for other candidates. Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. In its opinion, the Supreme Court cited several areas where the Florida Supreme Court had violated both the federal and Florida constitutions. Sensitivity analyses play a crucial role in assessing the robustness of the findings or conclusions based on primary analyses of data in clinical trials. analysis Unlike the much-discussed Palm Beach County butterfly ballot, the Duval County ballot spread choices for president over two non-facing pages. 2A). Sensitivity, to a first approximation, is this counterfactual relation: Ss belief that p is sensitive if and only if, if p were false, S would not believe that p. A sensitivity condition on knowledge was defended by Robert Nozick (1981). Following the machine recount, the Gore campaign requested a manual recount in four counties. Sensitivity Analysis. But were completely hardcore. The tabulated data shows the purchase price of JPM stock needed given an expected dividend growth rate and the investors desired return. This is important because some investors may only see the 5 and 10 year data assuming that the trend is going to continue but having an understanding of the economics and volatility of JPM dividend history shows a much more conservative growth rate for long term dividend investors. [22] At the same time that the Bush campaign was contesting hand recounts in Democratic counties, it accepted hand recounts in Republican counties that gained them 185 votes, including where Republican Party workers had been permitted to correct errors on thousands of applications for absentee ballots for Republicans. Scenario Analysis On November 14, Democratic lawyer Mark Herron authored a memo on how to challenge flawed ballots, including overseas ballots cast by members of the military. Do I believe that these people inadvertently cast their votes for Pat Buchanan? "Statutes & Constitution :View Statutes: Online Sunshine", "Bush leads Gore by 327 votes in Florida recount, Associated Press reports", "A State Legislature Cannot Appoint Its Preferred Slate of Electors to Override the Will of the People After the Election", "Gore concedes presidential race after the fight of his life", "The Butterfly Ballot: Anatomy of a Disaster", "Florida's flawed "voter-cleansing" program", "Do Voting Rights Notification Laws Increase Ex-Felon Turnout? Yes, I do. It was ostensibly completed on November 10 in the 66 Florida counties that used vote-counting machines and reduced Bush's lead to 327 votes. A Gordon Growth Model can determine the intrinsic value of constantly growing payments. The next day, Gore sued under Florida's statutory construct of the "contest phase". We attempted to establish diagnostic models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) We have to believe that based on the vote totals elsewhere. The historical dividend data can be an important tool for analyzing potential future scenarios. When the county segregated all ballots by machine for the NORC review, 512 previously rejected ballots were determined to be completely valid. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). With cash prizes and a chance to chat with the CEO, this competition - open to all contributors - is not one you want to miss. Cost-Volume-Profit Analysis (CVP analysis), also commonly referred to as Break-Even Analysis, is a way for companies to determine how changes in costs (both variable and fixed) and sales volume affect a companys profit.With this information, companies can better understand overall performance by looking at how many units must be Figure 5. [16][17], During the recount, controversy ensued with the discovery of various irregularities that had occurred in the voting process in several counties. 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida [20] It was expected that had they been able to vote, most would have chosen the Democratic candidate. The small margin produced an automatic recount under Florida state law, which began the day after the election. analysis The simulation also showed a 52.28% probability for a positive integer meaning that it is a slightly positive probability that JPM increases their dividend based off this model. There is a real issue here about what voting actually means. To understand scenario analysis vs sensitivity analysis, one should first understand that investment decisions are based on a set of assumptions and inputs. Not from where I'm sitting and what I'm looking at." 2000 United States presidential election in Florida, National Association for the Advancement of Colored People, Outstanding Directing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special, Best Supporting Actress Series, Miniseries or Television Film, 2016 United States presidential election recounts, United States House of Representatives elections in Florida, 2006#District 13. Sensitivity analysis is a management tool that helps in determining how different values of an independent variable can affect a particular dependent variable. Says Fred Schneider, We are old. Find all the information about sensitivity analysis from meaning, uses, to methods of measurement, parameters while carrying sensitivity analysis and much more. The NORC study (see below) did not address either of the concerns about overseas absentee ballots and Nassau County's certification change, as their effects were already included in the baseline totals. On November 11, it joined a group of Florida voters in suing in federal district court for a preemptive injunction to stop all manual recounting of votes in Florida. As the state has moved toward electronic voting, nothing in this evolution has diminished the standards first articulated in such [judicial] decisions that the intent of the voter is of paramount concern and should be given effect if the voter has complied with the statutory requirement and that intent may be determined. In order to normalize the assumptions for modeling, we can re-run the model to find the dividend growth rate while removing everything outside of the 95% confidence interval which are the variables outside of -2.1% to 29.7% (Figure 6). A nationwide December 1421, 2000 Harris poll asked, "If everyone who tried to vote in Florida had their votes counted for the candidate who they thought they were voting forwith no misleading ballots and infallible voting machineswho do you think would have won the election, George W. Bush or Al Gore?". The Florida Statutes contemplate that where electronic or electromechanical voting systems are used, no vote is to be declared invalid or void if there is a clear indication of the intent of the voter as determined by the county canvassing board. Scenario analysis makes assumptions about multiple variables and factors for possible future scenarios and looks at how each would affect the business. [77] Florida State University professor of public policy Lance deHaven-Smith observed that, even considering only undervotes, "under any of the five most reasonable interpretations of the Florida Supreme Court ruling, Gore does, in fact, more than make up the deficit". Uncertainty in risk assessment can be present in the characterization of the exposure scenario, the parameter estimates, and model predictions. Furthermore, the study did not consider overvotes, ballots that registered more than one vote when counted by machine. ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF GATEWAY PROCESS The case of Palm Beach Canvassing Board v. Katherine Harris (also known as Harris I) was a lawsuit about whether county canvassing boards had authority to extend manual recounts in order to inspect ballots for which the machine counter did not register a vote. Figure 2. Dividend Scorecard (Seeking Alpha). Analysis A good representation of the issues with this variance is the difference between the mean and median of the growth rates which are 13.82% and 4.82% respectively. A computational method to identify cell types within a complex tissue, based on analysis of gene expression profiles, is described in this paper. Fig. 12. Escambia County also reported completing its recount that day but did not include all of its precincts. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated 11. The county-level variance from the total number of ballots was 0.76%. Scenario Analysis vs. Scenario & Sensitivity Analyses. Preventing the canvassing boards from continuing to conduct recounts beyond the seven-day timeframe (specified in the law, but with ambiguity as to how firm it was intended to be), would "summarily disenfranchise innocent electors [voters]" and could not be allowed unless the recounts continued for so long as to "compromise the integrity of the electoral process." Fitted line plots: If you have one independent variable and the dependent variable, use a fitted line plot to display the data along with the fitted regression line and essential regression output.These graphs make understanding the model more intuitive. In a world of uncertainty, scenarios are intended to explore alternatives that may significantly alter the basis for business-as-usual assumptions. Scenarios Example 18:59. [37] After the election, recounts conducted by various United States news media organizations continued to focus on undervotes. But were completely hardcore. Such explanations did little to lessen the sense of anger among black Democrats. Volusia County started its recount on November 12. Ballots received after deadline, lacking required postmarks, unsigned, undated, cast after election day, from unregistered voters or voters not requesting ballots, lacking witness signature or address, or double-counted. Please. The Palm Beach County recount and the Miami-Dade County recount (having been suspended) were still incomplete at 5:00p.m. on November 26, when Harris certified the statewide vote count with Bush ahead by 537 votes. An excellent and widely used example of the benefit of Bayes Theorem is in the analysis of a medical diagnostic test. I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of JPM either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. [1], The controversy began on election night, November 7, 2000, when the national television networks, using information provided to them by the Voter News Service, an organization formed by the Associated Press to help determine the outcome of the election through early result tallies and exit polling, first called Florida for Gore in the hour after polls closed in the peninsula (in the Eastern time zone) but about ten minutes before they closed in the heavily Republican counties of the panhandle (in the Central time zone). 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida Between 1973 and 1980, the dividend remained very constant while the early 1980s were a fairly volatile time for the dividend which experienced large percentage changes. The Bush campaign subsequently appealed to the Supreme Court of the United States, which took up the case Bush v. Palm Beach County Canvassing Board on December 1. All were among 10,310 undervotes in the county. Sensitivity Analysis Temperature increase reduces global yields Says Fred Schneider, We are old. Analysis As an example, an investor who normally expects a 6% return may expect a 7% return as a Margin of Safety and change their purchase price accordingly. Under the FAC, a ballot with any other name written in (including Bush and Gore, who were not qualified as write-in candidates) was not an overvote, but rather a valid vote for the candidate whose name was marked by the voter. [4] Fairness and Accuracy in Reporting's analysis of the NORC study and media coverage of it supported these interpretations and criticized the coverage of the study by media outlets such as The New York Times and the other media consortium members for focusing on how events might have played out rather than on the statewide vote count. Example 2: If an investor utilizes the Monte Carlo simulation from the Scenario 1 results and expects a median growth rate of 3.16% (rounded down to 3%, blue row), then the current pricing of JPM would allow for almost a 7% return for perpetuity. Figure 10. Custom Scenario Buildout Part 1 9:54. Undervotes (ballots that did not register any vote when counted by machine) were the subject of much media coverage, most of the lawsuits and the Florida Supreme Court ruling. There are notable observations that can be made from this data and the causes of the variance in JPM would have to be researched further. [2] Gore phoned Bush the night of the election to concede, then retracted his concession after learning how close the Florida count was.[3]. Compounded annual growth rate formula (Investopedia). sensitivity The analysis from the multimethod ensemble indicates that a global increase in temperature of 1 C will reduce global rice yield by an average of 3.2 3.7%, much less than for maize and wheat (Fig. JPM is known as a dividend contender meaning it has increased its dividend every year for the past 10 years. CVP Analysis Guide The Monte Carlo simulation was ran through 5,000 iterations and the results show that a forecasted median and mean (5.35% and 5.44%) dividend growth rate can be expected into the future. Scenario Analysis vs Sensitivity Analysis [12] This statutory process primarily accommodated recounts for local elections. Quantitative methods to address uncertainty include non-probabilistic approaches such as sensitivity analysis and probabilistic methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. Sensitivity analysis is the process of analyzing individual variables/decisions to see how they impact an aspect of your businessone at a time. It is important to observe these historical trends and note that the business of JPM has altered and developed over this representation of time. This represents a much smaller right skew since the values are closer together. Bush's win in Florida gave him a majority of votes in the Electoral College and victory in the presidential election. A key feature of scenarios is that they should challenge conventional wisdom about the future. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Conservative writer Andrew Sullivan in a contemporaneous article:[61]. Linear model that uses a polynomial to model curvature. This figure shows all of the growth rates through JPM's dividend history from 1973 until 2022. Sensitivity Analysis Thus, the project included a sample within less than 1% of the expected total of votes.[75]. Data Validation 10. Sensitivity Analysis Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. We suggest that this is a fair scenario for investors who anticipate less volatility through their perpetual holding period and can use the 5.35% median dividend growth rate to determine their entrance price for JPM. Our analysis indicates that the real parts of 0 and 1 diverge from each other in an 1/3 fashion. Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. Bush's name appeared at the top of the ballot, sparing most Bush voters from error. Brady, Henry E.; Collier, David (2004). While Democrats did make their way down to Florida, there was nothing like the certainty or the passion that ignited Republicans. It can be useful in a wide range of subjects apart from finance, such as engineering, geography, biology, etc. While utilizing short term scorecards is a beneficial starting point, the focus on long-term investments makes dividend performance over longer periods of time more challenging to predict and increases uncertainty for the future. Sensitivity Analysis, among other models, is put much more to use as a decision support model than merely a tool to reach one optimal solution. 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida, County-by-county standards for write-in overvotes in 2000. "[53], The ballot had been redesigned earlier that year by Theresa LePore (Supervisor of Elections and member of the Democratic Party). Once the closeness of the election in Florida was clear, both the Bush and Gore campaigns organized themselves for the ensuing legal process. Numerous local court rulings went both ways, some ordering recounts because the vote was so close and others declaring that a selective manual recount in a few heavily Democratic counties would be unfair. Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly Finance What is CVP Analysis? Another candidate fourth condition on knowledge is sensitivity. On the other hand, he said, Democrats talked like referees with a fear of pushing too hard, not wanting to be seen as sore losers. [15], On December 13, Gore conceded the election to Bush in a nationally televised address. Using historical data and Monte Carlo simulations, we can estimate potential future growth rates for investment decisions. CVP Analysis Guide Spy Kids By a 54 vote the justices reversed and remanded the case to the Florida Supreme Court "for further proceedings not inconsistent with this opinion", prior to the optional "safe harbor" deadline which the Florida court had said the state intended to meet. The Monte Carlo simulation for Scenario 1 inputs the median and standard deviation from the historical data of Scenario 1 (Figure 5). Entertainment & Arts Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris's certification of the election results was thus upheld, allowing Florida's electoral votes to be cast for Bush, making him president-elect. Says Fred Schneider, We are old. It can be useful in a wide range of subjects apart from finance, such as engineering, geography, biology, etc. Machine Learning Meaning of Sensitivity Analysis. Finance Scenario Analysis Florida statutes also required that all counties certify and report their returns, including any recounts, by 5:00p.m. on November 14. Orange County presented fewer rejected ballots to the NORC than expected. Scenario Analysis vs Sensitivity Analysis Objective Early detection of a tumour remains an unmet medical need, and approaches with high sensitivity and specificity are urgently required. The Court further held that it had "considerable uncertainty" as to the reasons given by the Florida Supreme Court for its decision. The instructions on the sample ballots said "Vote every page". Robust enumeration of cell subsets from tissue expression The Desired Return shows a scale of different investor return expectations ranging from a 5% to 17% return. Financial Planning & Analysis Modeling Certification (FPAMC The National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, sponsored by a consortium of major United States news organizations, conducted the Florida Ballot Project, a comprehensive review of 175,010 ballots that were collected from the entire state, not just the disputed counties that were recounted. These bearish markets provide ample opportunity for contrarian and long-term focused investors. When Palm Beach County completed its recount two hours after the certification deadline, its final count was Gore 501 votes, Bush 327 votes excluded from the state certified total. A Sensitivity Analysis allows for investors to select their "Buy" price from their own assumptions. Stepwise regression and Best subsets regression: These automated It was anecdotal evidence at best, and local authorities argued persuasively that the police presence near a polling place was pure coincidence. 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida The Analysis of Knowledge Regarding the second issue, the court ruled that the statutory scheme must be interpreted in light of the Florida state constitution's declaration that "all political power is inherent in the people," with any ambiguities therefore construed "liberally." Scenarios 15:16. 13. We suggest that this is a useful scenario for investors who anticipate extreme volatility through their perpetual holding period and can use the 3.16% median dividend growth rate to determine their entrance price for JPM. [14]:89 On November 13, the federal court ruled against an injunction. Scenario Analysis ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF GATEWAY PROCESS Others have a different view. They are a critical way to assess the impact, effect or influence of key assumptions or variationssuch as different methods of analysis, definitions of outcomes, protocol deviations, missing data, and The only exception: African-Americans. There were two write-in candidates for president who had been qualified by the state of Florida. Investors can utilize quantitative methods augmented by investor expectations to determine a purchase price for JPM. Our goal at Six-Five Research is to incorporate both quantitative and qualitative analysis into better investment decisions. In such case, only the write-in vote is void." Nine counties (Alachua, Columbia, DeSoto, Glades, Lake, Sarasota, Seminole, Sumter and Wakulla) reported that it was their intent to count reclaimable overvotes under the Florida Supreme Court order. The court ordered counties to submit returns by November 26, until which time the stay of certification would stand.[59]. 4: Final level of data validation FMVA Required 2.5h Scenario & Sensitivity Analysis in Excel . County custom standard: what each individual county canvassing board considered a vote, in regard to both undervotes and overvotes. Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets.It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). Orienting and understanding a Sensitivity Analysis is useful for investors to determine their ideal purchase price (Figure 11). The lack of certainty in the premises and inputs brings about investment risk. Sensitivity Analysis Meaning of Sensitivity Analysis. Uncertainty in risk assessment can be present in the characterization of the exposure scenario, the parameter estimates, and model predictions. Based on the review of these ballots, their results indicated that Bush would have won if certain recounting methods had been used (including the one favored by Gore at the time of the Supreme Court decision), but that Gore might have won under other standards and scenarios. The review's findings were reported in the media during the week after November 12, 2001, by the organizations that funded the recount: Associated Press, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, St. Petersburg Times, The Palm Beach Post and Tribune Publishing, which included the Los Angeles Times, South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Orlando Sentinel and Chicago Tribune. The manual recounts were time-consuming, and it soon became clear that some counties would not complete their recounts before the deadline. George W. Bush, et al., Petitioners v. Albert Gore, Jr., et al. Objective Early detection of a tumour remains an unmet medical need, and approaches with high sensitivity and specificity are urgently required. When the Florida Supreme Court ordered a statewide recount of remaining uncounted undervotes, it stipulated that the incomplete results from Palm Beach and Miami-Dade Counties that had been rejected by Katherine Harris be counted. As the manual recounts continued, the battle to certify the results intensified. Robust enumeration of cell subsets from tissue expression sensitivity JPM dividend growth rate summary (Author). A January 2001 review by the Palm Beach Post of those "set-aside" ballots determined that 4318 were "unambiguous" valid votes. Finance As a dividend investor, the goal is to invest in firms that have a high likelihood of maintaining growing dividend payments throughout the investors lifespan. Center for the Study of Intelligence (CSI) The World Factbook.
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